Italian wine is slowing its decline in non‑EU markets thanks to a first, modest signal from the United States, but the overall picture remains fragile: in the first four months of 2026, exports still show a value drop of ‑8.5%, despite an improvement compared to the previous quarter. This is what emerges from the Uiv Observatory, which identifies the (still limited) recovery in US demand as the main factor containing losses, in a scenario still shaped by economic variables and structural shifts in consumption.
The role of the US: first positive signal after 10 months
After ten consecutive months of decline, the US market shows a slight reversal in April, with a +1.6% increase in value.
A figure that softens the overall four‑month balance, bringing the US decline to ‑15.4%, compared to ‑20.5% in the first quarter.
An improvement described by the Observatory as a “breath of fresh air”, though it only marginally affects a market still under pressure, with a broader contraction that from July 2025 to April 2026 reached ‑20% for Italian wine.
Italian wine exports between tariffs, exchange rates and new consumption habits
The recovery therefore remains partial and fragile, set within a complex context where economic factors and structural transformations intersect.
Lamberto Frescobaldi summarises the moment:
“In the United States,” explains the president of Unione Italiana Vini (UIV), “we are paying the price of tariff‑related difficulties and a weak dollar, but also of structural changes in consumption patterns. The US remains by far our first market, both now and in the long term: this is why it is essential to maintain and protect our decades‑long commercial partnership, especially ahead of 24 July, when the US administration will define the new tariff framework. Politics and trade often speak different languages, but it will be crucial to work together, lowering tensions and harmonising a partnership that is fundamental for both sides.”
US consumption remains the critical point
While export data show slight improvement, US domestic consumption continues to decline significantly. In the first five months of the year, total wine consumption in the US fell by ‑10.1%, with Italian wine limiting losses to ‑7.3%.
Sparkling wines are providing the strongest support, with only a mild decline (‑2%), and Prosecco stands out as the only segment in growth, at +1.8%.
The contraction is sharper for whites and reds, although interesting signals are emerging in premium tiers—particularly reds priced between $20 and $50 and whites between $16 and $20.
The picture is that of a US market in transformation, where opportunities exist but require a new reading of consumption dynamics and positioning. The slowdown in the decline is a signal, but not yet a consolidated reversal.
For Italian wine, the challenge remains maintaining leadership in an increasingly competitive environment, by intercepting new consumption habits and strengthening presence in higher‑value segments.
Italian wine exports and 2026 outlook
In the first four months of 2026, non‑EU exports exceeded €1.36 billion, though still in negative territory. The improvement recorded in April suggests a possible rebalancing phase—provided consumption picks up and commercial continuity with key markets is maintained.
In this scenario, the relationship with the United States remains central, not only in terms of volume but as a benchmark for the global positioning of Italian wine.
