The global wine sector is not standing still. It is reshaping itself. In 2025, according to the latest OIV snapshot, the world’s wine industry has moved within an increasingly evident tension: fewer vineyards, production still below historical averages, consumption at its lowest level since 1957, and international trade slowed by tariffs, weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet within this contraction, a new balance—fragile but real—between supply and demand is beginning to emerge.
The International Organisation of Vine and Wine has presented its new State of the World Wine Sector in 2025 report, outlining a scenario in which the global market continues to adapt to a combination of climate variability, slowing consumption and growing commercial uncertainty. The value of trade remains above pre‑Covid levels, but in 2025 both volumes and value recorded a setback.
The global wine sector in 2025: the key word is adaptation
OIV Director General John Barker summarises the moment the sector is experiencing: “In recent years, the wine sector has adapted to climatic, economic and social challenges. In 2025, trade tensions linked to tariff policies represented an additional external pressure that producers, exporters and supply‑chain operators had to face.”
This is the central point: wine is not simply going through a negative phase, but a structural transformation. Consumers are changing, production geographies are shifting, the weight of international trade is evolving, and capacity management is being rethought.
The new normal of wine is emerging from the intersection of three simultaneous phenomena: climate change, which increases vintage volatility; demographic transformation, with ageing mature markets and weaker engagement from younger generations; and economic evolution, which makes consumers more price‑sensitive and more inclined to spread their spending across different beverage categories.
“Overall, the sector is demonstrating resilience, both in seeking new market opportunities and in adjusting production capacity in line with demand,” Barker adds. “Trade and product value remain solid, and recent bilateral or multilateral agreements will help create positive conditions for evolving markets.”
Global vineyard area: sixth consecutive year of contraction
Global vineyard surface area stands at 7 million hectares in 2025, down 0.8% from 2024. This marks the sixth consecutive year of decline and confirms a now global adjustment process, with uprooting and downsizing in several producing countries.
Today the world’s vineyard area is 9% lower than in 2000. The European Union still accounts for 45% of global vineyard surface, while the Southern Hemisphere represents 12%. Spain remains the largest country by area, with 919,000 hectares, followed by France, China, Italy and the United States.
France shows one of the most significant trends: in 2025 it records a 4.4% drop in vineyard area, equal to around 34,000 hectares, while Italy shows a much smaller decline of 0.3%, reaching 726,000 hectares.
Wine production 2025: third consecutive short harvest
Global wine production is estimated at 227 million hectolitres, just 0.6% above the historic low of 2024, but still 9.4% below the average of the past five years. This is the third consecutive year of low production, reflecting a context in which climate and production strategies are compressing supply.
Extreme weather events, spring frosts, excessive rainfall, prolonged droughts and heatwaves have affected many wine regions in both hemispheres. But the OIV also highlights another factor: in some cases, lower volumes reflect more cautious production choices linked to weaker global demand.
Italy remains the world’s leading producer with 44.4 million hectolitres, essentially in line with 2024 but still below the five‑year average. France follows with 36.1 million hectolitres, and Spain with 28.7 million. The United States reaches 20 million hectolitres, down 5.3% from 2024 and 16.2% below the five‑year average.
Italy as the world’s top producer and the strategic role of stock management
Italy’s data requires careful reading. The 2025 season benefited from generally favourable conditions—mild spring, balanced rainfall and a summer that was not excessively hot. However, performance varied widely across regions: growth came mainly from the South and moderate increases in the North, while the Centre recorded a slight decline, particularly due to Tuscany.
In some denominations, yields were deliberately limited to manage still‑high stock levels. This is crucial: the issue is no longer simply producing, but producing in line with a demand that no longer grows automatically.
Lower production, therefore, is not always a sign of weakness. In some cases, it becomes a strategic tool to rebalance the market and reduce inventories accumulated in previous years.
Wine consumption 2025: lowest level since 1957
The most delicate figure concerns consumption. In 2025, global wine consumption is estimated at 208 million hectolitres, down 2.7% from 2024. The downward trend, ongoing since 2018, brings the global market to its lowest level since 1957.
The medium‑term picture is even more striking: compared to 2018, global wine consumption has fallen by around 14%.
According to the OIV, this evolution reflects structural changes in mature markets, new social habits, generational shifts and economic pressures on purchasing power. In 2025, nine of the world’s ten largest wine markets recorded declining consumption.
The United States remains the world’s largest market, with 31.9 million hectolitres, but shows a 4.3% drop. France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom follow. Italy, the third‑largest market, records a significant 9.4% decline, returning to pre‑Covid levels with 20.2 million hectolitres.
Young consumers and new habits: the challenge goes beyond price
The slowdown in consumption is not only economic. The OIV report reflects a deeper shift: in mature markets, younger generations drink less alcohol and show more fragmented habits.
Wine now competes not only with other beverage categories, but with entirely different consumption models built around immediacy, wellness or occasional experiences.
The challenge is therefore not only economic: it concerns wine’s ability to remain culturally relevant for consumers who assign different values to the very idea of consumption.
China weighs more than it seems on the global slowdown
Among the factors shaping the new global wine balance, China plays a central role.
In recent years, the Chinese market has steadily reduced consumption, losing around 2 million hectolitres per year compared to previous levels. This reflects a shift from consumption tied to status, institutional gifting and corporate protocol to more individual and fragmented patterns.
Domestic production in China also continues to decline from the peaks of the past decade. Given the role China once played as a growth engine for global wine, its downsizing is one of the key elements for understanding the current phase of the global market.
Portugal, Brazil and Japan: the exceptions in the geography of consumption
Within a general context of contraction, some markets show positive signals. Portugal reaches a record consumption level in 2025, at 5.6 million hectolitres, up 5.6% from the previous year. Romania, Japan and Brazil also show favourable dynamics.
Brazil, in particular, stands out with a strong surge: consumption reaches 4.4 million hectolitres, up 41.9% from 2024 and nearly 20% above the five‑year average.
But it is not the only surprise. Georgia records one of its highest productions in thirty years, while New Zealand experiences the second‑largest harvest in its recent history, accompanied by strong export growth. These signals show how the geography of global wine continues to shift.
In per‑capita consumption, Portugal remains the most emblematic case, with 62 litres per person over age 15, ahead of France and Italy.
Global wine trade: volumes and value down
International wine trade in 2025 fully reflects market tensions. Global exports fall to 94.8 million hectolitres, down 4.7%, while value drops to €33.8 billion, down 6.7%.
The slowdown is linked to weaker global demand, tariff uncertainties in the U.S. market, currency movements and an increasingly complex commercial environment. Despite the decline, the level of internationalisation remains extremely high: 46% of the wine consumed worldwide is imported, confirming wine as one of the most globalised agri‑food sectors.
Average export prices also fall slightly in euros, reaching €3.56 per litre, down 2.1% from 2024, but still the third‑highest value ever recorded and 24% above pre‑Covid levels.
Italy leads in export volume, France in export value
Italy maintains a central role in international trade. In 2025 it exports 21 million hectolitres, remaining the world’s top exporter by volume, ahead of Spain and France. In value, France remains the leader with €11.2 billion, followed by Italy with €7.8 billion and Spain with €3 billion.
Italian exports fall by 2% in volume and 3.4% in value. Bottled wine, which accounts for 55% of volumes and 65% of export value, leads the decline, while sparkling wines show greater resilience with a smaller drop in volume. The United States remains Italy’s top market by value, at €1.7 billion, but down 9.1%, partly due to tariffs in the second half of the year.
United States: top wine market, but imports sharply down
The United States remains the world’s largest wine market and the leading importer by value. In 2025, however, U.S. imports fall to €5.5 billion, down 12% from 2024.
The decline affects all major suppliers: France, Italy, New Zealand, Spain, Australia, Argentina, Chile, Portugal, Germany and Canada all record lower export values to the U.S.
This is one of the clearest signs of the new global phase: the centre of gravity of wine remains global, but globalisation no longer automatically means growth.
Bottled, bulk, sparkling and Bag‑in‑Box: global trade trends
In 2025, bottled wine under 2 litres represents 51.1% of exported volumes and 66.4% of value, confirming its dominance in global trade. However, it records a 5.7% drop in volume and an 8.9% drop in value.
Sparkling wines account for 11.2% of volumes and 24.3% of value, with a decline of 2.7% in volume and 6.1% in value. Bulk wine, while representing 34% of exported volumes, accounts for only 7.3% of total value, confirming a structural polarisation between quantity and value.
Bag‑in‑Box remains a smaller category, with 3.6% of volumes and 2% of value, but shows greater price stability than other formats.
Production and consumption: a fragile but possible balance
Perhaps the most interesting figure in the OIV report concerns the global balance between production and consumption. With 227 million hectolitres produced and 208 million consumed, the apparent gap is around 18.7 million hectolitres. But the OIV notes that a significant share of wine is destined for industrial uses—distillation, vinegar, wine‑based products and spirits—amounting to around 30 million hectolitres per year.
For this reason, the third consecutive year of low production helps keep the market essentially balanced, limiting the impact of declining consumption on stocks.
The new normal of global wine seems to rest on a paradox: lower production does not necessarily mean scarcity, but can become a tool for rebalancing a market facing more selective, less linear and harder‑to‑predict demand.
The future of global wine according to the OIV
The 2025 report confirms that the global wine sector has entered a phase of deep adaptation. The major issues are no longer separate: climate, tariffs, consumption, stocks, prices, distribution and mature markets are now part of the same system of pressures.
The open question is not whether wine will grow again, but what the new balance between production, consumption and value will look like in a world that drinks less, chooses differently and seeks increasingly identity‑driven products.
In this scenario, wine retains a strong international dimension, but must learn to navigate a more unstable world. The ability to adapt production to demand, to secure new markets and to rebuild value around consumption becomes the true competitive ground of the coming years.
