A study promoted by Centromarca and carried out with the scientific support of Nomisma calculates how much the probable US tariffs will cost Made in Italy exports. If the climate of uncertainty of recent months has already put a strain on the performance of Italian companies selling in the United States, making any attempt at strategic planning with American buyers for 2025 futile, the introduction of the new tax could cost Italian exports of food and non-food products between 500 million and 3.3 billion euros.
In relation to the rate that could actually come into force on July 9, the values to consider are: 10%, -489 million euros of exports in value; 20%, -1.067 billion; 30%, -1.734 billion; 40%, -2.489 billion; 50%, -3.334 billion. The unfavorable exchange rate between the euro and the dollar would also contribute to further penalizing exports: in the first months of 2025, the European currency appreciated significantly against the American one (+11% between January and June), reaching the highest levels since 2022.
US tariffs: Centromarca’s survey reveals how much they cost Made in Italy exports
The combination of US tariffs and an unfavorable currency makes products on the shelf more expensive and less attractive and risks compromising margins and export volumes. How will consumers react?
To find out, Nomisma conducted a survey of 2,000 Americans, which revealed that 85% of Americans are aware of the existence of the tax and 50% that it will have a negative effect on purchases.
Faced with a 20% price increase caused by US tariffs, the majority of consumers say they would continue to buy Italian products, but a significant portion (between 30% and 40%) would do so to a lesser extent.
Those affected could be Italian products that are more easily replaceable with goods made in the States or other countries, while the impact could be more limited for premium or less replaceable products, such as PDO cheeses and wines or famous brands.
“The uncertainty over the application of duties is of great concern to our industries, both on an economic level and because it does not allow for adequate strategic planning and negotiation with US buyers,” underlines Vittorio Cino, general manager of Centromarca.
“It is a criticality that should not be underestimated if we consider the importance of the overseas market for food and non-food goods produced in Italy. In 2024, US imports of Italian grocery goods generated a turnover of 9.9 billion euros, with a growth of +161% compared to 2014 and an incidence of 11% on the overall exports of the sector. It is noteworthy that in the first four months of this year the increase in value was 14% compared to the same period in 2024. On the basis of these considerations, Centromarca is supporting companies with ad hoc analyses and constantly interfaces with its correspondents in Brussels and with the competent ministries”.
