A bill of almost 1 billion euros for exports alone. This is the impact estimated by Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv) for Italian wine of the 25% duties announced by the Trump administration that could also affect the sector. An effect of concentric circles, starting from the US – where the estimated direct loss would be around 472 million euros, for a balance compared to last year of -25% – and extending to the countries directly impacted by the new US Trump’s tariffs, for which economic slowdowns if not recession are expected, such as in Germany. In Canada, Italian exports could close the accounts of 2025 at -6%, while in the European Union the estimates stand at -5%, for a negative balance of 216 million euros.
Between the US, Canada and the EU, which account for 80% of the value of Italian wine exports, the balance for the rolling year (from April 2025 to April 2026) would close at -716 million euros (-11%). Total exports to the rest of the world, according to Uiv, would finally see a specular contraction, which would bring the deficit between 2024 and 2025 to -920 million euros. All net of the domestic market, which in the rolling year would suffer a further contraction of about 350 million euros, equal to 5% of consumption.
US Trump’s tariffs and cost surplus: the appeal of Unione Italiana Vini to importers and distributors
According to the president of Unione Italiana Vini, Lamberto Frescobaldi:
“To remain in the US market, which is worth approximately 1.9 billion euros for us and 24% of the total exports of the sector, we appeal to our American partners – importers and distributors –. The goal is to team up with our wine companies to try to cushion together the surplus costs resulting from the trade war”.
“We realize – adds Frescobaldi – that this sacrifice would not be easy to implement and would determine uneconomic dynamics in the short term, but the imperative is still to save the market and the special relationship that binds us with US consumers. The hypothesis of 25% duties would in fact determine an almost total exit from the market, which would be worse than the figures listed above”.
“In this month that separates us from the decisions that will be adopted by the American administration – concludes Frescobaldi –, we ask for the maximum effort of Italian and European diplomacy, so that negotiations on the future of trade relations with the United States can begin now. Wine must be “in the briefcase” of the Commission’s proposals, regarding the trade rebalancing between the two blocs”.
