The latest analysis by Nomisma Wine Monitor confirms that in 2025 wine imports into the United States closed with a drop of nearly 12% in value, settling at around €5.5 billion. The weakening of the dollar and the introduction of tariffs added to the contraction in consumption already underway for several years—temporarily masked by post‑pandemic euphoria. The result is a more cautious and selective market, with a direct impact on Italian shipments.
Specifically, up to November 2025, exports of Italian PDO wines to the U.S. reached 2.37 million hectoliters worth €1.3 billion, marking a decrease of –2.6% in volume and –6.2% in value compared to the same period the previous year.
The slowdown is concentrated above all in PDO red wines—Tuscan, Piedmontese and Venetian—which lose over 7% in value, while the exceptions stand out for Sicilian whites (+12%) and Tuscan whites (+39%). Prosecco remains positive in volume (+1.3%) but shows a decline in value (–2%).
According to Nomisma, producers and importers helped prevent a collapse in volumes by absorbing part of the tariffs within their own margins, in order to maintain competitive shelf prices. A decision that inevitably affected revenues but prevented even sharper disruptions in supply.
The Axis Shifts: Which Markets Are Absorbing Italian Wine Exports
With the U.S. contracting, Italian exporters have turned their attention to new development areas. However, growth is not uniform:
- China, Japan and the UK closed 2025 with overall declines in imports.
- Switzerland saw lower volumes but a slight increase in value.
- South Korea accelerated in volume but decreased in value.
- Brazil is the most encouraging case, with growth in both volume and value.
In China, flows stopped just above 2 million hectoliters for around €1.3 billion, with a generalized decline sparing only sparkling wines in volume—but not in value. For Italy, 2025 closes with approximately –15% in value, confirming a highly competitive market still far from past peaks.
In Japan, total imports amount to around €1.5 billion: volumes down –2.2%, values down –1.7%, with France the only major supplier holding up in value, while Spain and Italy decline in both metrics; Italy’s share stands at 12.5%.
South Korea goes against the trend in volume (+5.3%) but not in value (–10%, around €385 million in total), with strong growth in bulk wine (+30.6%). In this context, Italian PDO exports show positive signals especially for Veneto reds, rising in both volume and value.
In the UK, total imports drop in both volume (–6.0%) and value (–6.3%), falling to €4.3 billion, with widespread declines in average prices for still bottled wines, semi‑sparkling and sparkling wines. Italy, the second supplier with a 24% share, loses around 6% in value.
In Switzerland, volumes fall (–4.7%) against a slight +0.7% in value; Italian wine shows –6% in value and –3% in volume.
Brazil, on the other hand, confirms itself as a strategic destination: in 2025 imports grow in volume (+3.5%) and value (+1.9%), driven by still and sparkling bottled wines. Italian PDO exports increase in both metrics, with Tuscan reds leading in value and Veneto whites leading in volume. The profile becomes even more interesting in light of the EU–Mercosur agreement, which—Nomisma notes—will be provisionally applied pending European Parliament ratification, opening medium‑term competitiveness opportunities.
Prices, Tariffs and New Destinations: Nomisma Wine Monitor’s Reading of Italian Wine Exports in 2025
For Denis Pantini, head of Wine Monitor, U.S. dynamics are the result of a true shock along the supply chain: first, preventive stockpiling to avoid new tariffs; then, reduced shipments due to a domestic market unable to absorb accumulated supply.
The need to mitigate the fiscal burden forced producers to cut average prices in almost all categories, impacting the overall value of exports. This has accelerated the push to strengthen positioning in other markets—even though 2025 was not a particularly strong year for many traditional destinations—and to seek new ones, from Eastern Europe (Poland and Czech Republic) to Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Thailand cited as promising examples.
Pantini explains:
“In the U.S., the introduction of tariffs on wine imports generated strong turbulence across the entire supply chain: after a phase of preventive stockpiling to avoid the new tariffs, shipments declined due also to a contracting domestic market unable to absorb the surplus. The need to mitigate the fiscal burden to maintain competitive consumer prices pushed producers toward cutting average prices in almost all categories, as shown by the drop in overall export value. This is forcing Italian producers both to strengthen their positioning in other countries—despite many major markets showing negative import performance in 2025—and to seek new destinations, which fortunately are available, beginning with Eastern Europe—such as Poland and the Czech Republic—and Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and Thailand.”
What This Means for Producers: Short‑Term Tactics, Medium‑Term Strategy
The “new geography” outlined by Nomisma suggests two levels of action. In the short term, the tactic is to absorb part of tariff costs and maintain shelf presence in key markets, recalibrating the mix (with whites and sparkling wines proving more resilient) and diversifying channels—from on‑trade to direct sales and winery‑based hospitality programs.
In the medium term, the strategy is to target structurally growing markets—Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia and Brazil—and to develop well‑articulated premiumization pathways, leveraging territorial identity, traceability, sustainability and brand positioning.
It is a scenario where value is built increasingly less on price alone and more on territorial storytelling and perceived quality, including through wine tourism and educational experiences aimed at buyers and evolved consumers. A field in which many Italian wineries are already active—and which, according to Nomisma, may make the difference in the next phase of the cycle.
