A proposed 15% tariff on European wine imports could deal a $25 billion blow to the US economy, warns Lamberto Frescobaldi, President of the Unione Italiana Vini (UIV), following the latest U.S.-EU trade agreement. “This is not just about wine consumption,” Frescobaldi says. “These tariffs will trigger a far-reaching economic shock, particularly in the U.S., impacting jobs, supply chains, and retail.”
The figure comes from an analysis by the UIV Observatory, which draws on data from the 2025 Economic Impact Report by WineAmerica. According to the report, wine contributes $144.4 billion annually to the U.S. economy through direct, indirect, and induced impacts—ranging from retail and logistics to wages and broader consumer spending.
A 15% tariff would slash $25 billion from this total, UIV warns, affecting not only European producers but also American distributors, retailers, and related industries.
Frescobaldi urges negotiators to include wine in the so-called “zero-for-zero” list—agricultural products exempt from reciprocal tariffs—citing growing concern among U.S. industry stakeholders. “We are receiving strong signals from American partners, including the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance and our importers, who recognize the mutual damage these tariffs would cause,” he says.
UIV estimates that the tariffs will reduce U.S. consumer spending on Italian, French, and Spanish wines by roughly $3 billion. This drop in consumption would trigger a chain reaction, deepening financial losses across the wine sector and beyond.
The overall economic footprint of the wine industry in the U.S. could fall 17% within a year—from $144.4 billion to $120 billion—if the tariffs are enacted. The consumption of Italian wine alone could account for $13.5 billion of that decline.
Market forecasts paint a grim picture: Italian wine sales are projected to fall 20% within a year. Domestic U.S. wines, already struggling with three years of declines, are expected to see a further 13% drop by August 2026. Other EU wines may fall 19%, while non-EU imports—including Argentine, Australian, and Chilean wines—could shrink by 16% under new tariffs.
