Italian wine exports are experiencing a year full of uncertainty and complications. This is confirmed by the first-half trends in the 12 main international markets, which paint a two-faceted picture. While the final six-month assessment of the Nomisma Wine Monitor Report suggests a ray of light in a very mixed picture, with cumulative growth set at +1.5% in value and +2.1% in volume, there are also concerns ahead of the end of 2025, especially regarding US tariffs.
“While awaiting the US Court of Appeals’ ruling on the legitimacy of the tariffs, following the lawsuit filed by several local companies, including Italian wine importer Victor Schwartz, it is clear that our wineries are obliged to monitor global trends to identify other markets capable of absorbing our production,” emphasizes Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor.
The risk of a contraction in the US market could have a significant impact on Italian wine exports, especially given a trend in domestic consumption that has been showing signs of slowing for several years. A decline in consumption cannot be easily offset, at least in the short term, by growth in other markets, which often exhibit slower growth and lower absorption capacity. This is precisely why it is crucial for our companies to begin looking more closely at new geographic areas for expansion, diversifying their outlet markets as much as possible. However, it is necessary to be aware that establishing a commercial presence outside of established markets—such as the US—requires medium to long-term timeframes, as well as targeted investments and long-term strategies.
Effect of US tariffs, growth in Canada, Japan, and Brazil, decline in the United Kingdom and Switzerland: a two-faced first half of 2025 for Italian wine exports
The updated snapshot of wine imports into the main world markets in the first half of 2025, as outlined by Nomisma’s Wine Monitor Report, highlights the absence of a single trend: in the first half of the year, individual countries monitored exhibited different dynamics, although overall the 12 main international markets recorded growth of +1.5% in value and +2.1% in volume.
The United States remains the main export destination, but the end of importers’ accumulation of inventories in anticipation of the implementation of US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration has led to a decline in the second quarter: while import growth had reached +22% up until March compared to the same period of the previous year, the cumulative figure between April and June instead recorded a -7% decline.
This trend also affected purchases of Italian wines: the increase for the first half of the year appears positive (+2.5%) thanks only to the accumulation that occurred in the first three months of the year.
Regarding other key markets, Italian wines in Canada also felt the effects of the Trump administration, but in reverse: in the first half of 2025, imports from Italy grew by almost 11%, benefiting from the on-shelf substitution of US wines, which plummeted by over 65% in retaliation for US tariff measures.
A very positive performance for Italian wines was also recorded in Germany (+10.3% in value), a clear recovery compared to last year. Japan and Brazil also performed positively. Conversely, the United Kingdom saw a decline in imports of Italian wines of -7% in value, as did Switzerland, South Korea, Norway, and China, which saw a contraction in imports in response to slowing domestic demand.
Compared to individual wine categories, the rise of Italian sparkling wines slowed from January to June 2025, with cumulative growth across the 12 markets of +1% in value and +6% in volume: Japan, the United States, and China are the three markets recording the most dynamic growth. Conversely, the United Kingdom (-6.6% in value), France (-2.4%), and Australia (-4.4%) posted a contrasting picture.
Regarding purchases of Italian still and sparkling wines, Germany, after a negative 2024, posted a strong recovery (+14.2% in value), along with Canada, Australia, and Brazil, showing positive performances compared to other markets such as the United Kingdom (-8.1%) and China (-10.5%).
