Italian wine put to the test by the market and consumption, with the report signed by the Mediobanca Research Area that takes a snapshot of how the wine sector closed 2024 and what the prospects are for 2025, in Italy and for exports.
Italy in the world scenario
The internationalization of wine is growing: today almost one in two bottles is consumed in a country other than the one that produced it (ratio between exports and consumption went from 27% in 2000 to 46.6% in 2024).
In 2024, world wine production is estimated at 226 million hectoliters, down 4.8% on 2023 while consumption stands at 214 million hectoliters (-3.3%).
Italy is bucking the trend: +15.1% in production compared to 2023 (positioning itself at the top of the ranking) and +0.1% in consumption, with 37.8 liters per capita per year.
The trade balance is also positive: in 20 years it has grown at an average annual rate of 5.5%, going from 2.6 billion euros in 2004 to 7.5 in 2024.
Italy is also the first wine exporter in terms of quantity (21.7 million hectoliters in 2024) and the second in terms of value (8.1 billion euros behind only France’s 11.7 billion).
2024 and beyond for the Italian wine sector
The major Italian wine producers expect overall sales growth of +1.7% for 2025, with +2% on the export front.
The optimism of sparkling wines continue (+4.4% overall revenues), especially abroad (+6.1% exports), while still wines are expected to grow by +0.9% (+1.2% exports).
The 2024 of the major Italian wine producers closed without significant changes (+0.3% on 2023) with a greater increase on the foreign market (+0.7%). The good performances abroad of sparkling wines stand out (+9.1%).
The Ebit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points on 2023, the ratio between net profit and turnover by 0.2 points.
In 2024, however, quantities sold in Italy on all channels will decrease by 2.5%; sparkling wines will increase by 4.1%. On-premise sales are losing ground: -4.9% on 2023 for Horeca, which reaches 17.6% of the market, and -8.4% for wine shops and wine bars (market share at 5.7%). Direct sales are slightly up (+1.3% on 2023), which stand at 8.2% of the market.
Wine tourism on the rise in 2024: +9% on 2023 revenues, with cellar visits now offered by three-quarters of companies.
Something is also changing on the horizons linked to sustainability: organic wines have reached 5% of the market (-2.6% sales), natural wines are growing (+4.2%, 1.9% market share) and vegan wines (+31.7%, 0.9% market share). With the presence of reports dedicated to sustainability affecting 60% of companies and in 16.7% of cases there is a manager with an exclusive role in ESG matters. More frequently, however, it is handled by a figure who also has other corporate functions (38.2% of operators) or directly by the president, the CEO or the general manager (about 25% of companies).
2025 Outlook: the future of Italian wine
In a context of lower disposable income, the expected decline in wine consumption and a recomposition of the same, induced by generational change and the spread of healthy models, worry 70% and 60% of companies, respectively.
Equally fearful is the uncertainty about the decisions of the American administration to impose duties on wine imports.
50% of companies consider the new Highway Code a threat to the sector, 30% fear the effects of climate change.
For over three-quarters of Italian wine companies, the difficulties of demand can be overcome by opening up to new markets; while in the context of the remodeling of the offer, the development of the no and low alcohol categories prevails (a priority for 50% of companies).
To face the future, investments in human capital are considered essential for approximately 55% of operators, more than technological investments, focused on artificial intelligence and automation (important for a third of companies)
